Follow the Money: How to Make Better Decisions When Everything Looks Like BS
In 2026, everything is BS until you prove it isn't.
Every marketing pitch sounds credible because you can find five articles that back it up. Every vendor claims their product or service changes everything. Every statistic looks verified until you trace it back and find no original source. Every review could be fake. Every expert could be selling something.
This is the air we breathe now. Skepticism and cynicism are not cynical—they're the baseline for staying out of the red.
The problem is not that BS exists. The problem is that BS is expensive. You have a budget. Time is money. Trust is currency. Every bad decision costs you.
So here's what works: Follow the money. One simple principle. One set of five questions. Applied to vendors, consumer purchases, or any decision where someone is trying to convince you to believe or buy something.
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WHY "FOLLOW THE MONEY" WORKS
[DIRECTIONAL PRINCIPLE]
Money reveals incentives. Incentives reveal what people actually believe about their own claims, or what they're willing to tell you to make a sale.
Example: A marketing agency claims "we guarantee Page 1 rankings."
Follow the money:
- If they truly believed their guarantee, would they require a 12-month contract upfront?
- Or would they work month to month and put the guarantee in writing with a refund clause?
The contract tells you everything. They're not betting their money on the result. They're betting your money on the contract.
Example: A vendor sends you "survey data showing 40% of local SEO campaigns achieve 500% ROI."
Follow the money:
- Who conducted the survey? Show me the methodology. How did they arrange this survey, case study, or statistic? Is it more objective?
- Who paid for it?
- What was the sample size?
- When was it published?
If you can't find the original source and methodology, the stat is vendor marketing, not data. The vendor benefits from you believing it. But here's the trap: it's circular. One source cites another source that was made up as well. The bias is: The vendors and platforms that profit from your decision don't get to be the ones who measure whether it worked.
BIASNESS : The vendors and platforms that profit from your decision don't get to be the ones have the suppossed evidence it works. The evidence is Bias.
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THE FIVE QUESTIONS THAT CUT THROUGH EVERYTHING
Before any vendor pitch, consumer purchase, or major decision, ask these five questions. Write down the answers. Then decide.
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QUESTION 1: Promise vs. Proof
What exactly is being claimed?
Write it down. Word for word.
Then ask: What's the proof?
Not a case study (case studies are selected). Not a testimonial (testimonials are voluntary). Actual data. Before-and-after numbers. Independent verification.
[REAL EXAMPLE — PushButton AI, May 2026]
Here's what actually happened: An e-commerce owner read a case study. The case study showed how an AI forecasting tool worked great. So she signed a contract.
But the case study left out one thing. The company in the case study had spent three months cleaning up their data before they even started using the tool. The owner who signed didn't know that. She didn't have that three months.
So when she used the tool, it didn't work as advertised.
The case study was real. The company was real. The results were real. But the case study didn't tell the whole story.
Follow the money: The vendor benefits when you sign before you know all the requirements. They want you signing now, not asking questions later.
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QUESTION 2: What Are They Measuring (And What Are They NOT)?
[REAL DATA — JobNimbus, January 2026]
JobNimbus works with contractors every day. Here's what they found:
Contractors make one big mistake. They look at how many leads they got. But they don't look at how many of those leads actually turned into jobs.
Here's the problem: A cheap lead ($20) that never becomes a job costs you more than an expensive lead ($200) that turns into a $15,000 job.
What vendors show you: "We generated 50 leads for you this month." Sounds good.
You can't tell if any of them actually became jobs.
What you should measure: Did I get booked jobs? Did I make money? Did I gain real customers?
Follow the money: Vendors make money by showing you activity (leads, clicks, impressions).
You make money by booking jobs. These are not the same thing. When the vendor measures activity instead of actual business, that's BS.
What to ask: "What three metrics will we measure to know if this is working?"
If they say "impressions, reach, engagement"—they're measuring activity, not results.
If they say "calls, booked appointments, revenue"—they're measuring what you care about.
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QUESTION 3: When Do I Actually See Results?
[REAL DATA — FieldServ, April 2026]
FieldServ looked at contractors using field service software. Here's what they found:
30 days: You'll see small wins. Faster paperwork. Quicker billing. Less time on data entry.
90 to 180 days: You'll see real money. More booked jobs. Better income.
But vendors don't tell you this timeline upfront.
Here's what happens: You use the tool for 45 days. You don't see booked jobs yet. So you cancel it. You think it doesn't work.
When someone cancels at 45 days, two things could be true:
The tool IS working. You quit too early.
It's a poor tool. It doesn't deliver.
Follow the money: The vendor gets paid every month whether you see results or not. You want money now. That gap lets vendors collect paychecks and disappear when you get frustrated.
What to ask: "In 30 days, what will we measure? In 60 days, what should I expect to see? At 90 days, what does success look like in actual calls or revenue?"
If they can't answer with specific dates and specific metrics, they don't understand your business well enough to help.
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QUESTION 4: What's the Baseline?
[REAL PATTERN — Tradogram, April 2026]
Tradogram studied procurement teams. Here's what they found:
Most people measure "before and after" to see if something worked. But they forget to measure what was actually happening before.
Example: You hire an agency for Google Ads. Six months pass. You booked 12 jobs.
Question: Did the agency get you those 12 jobs? Or would you have booked 12 anyway without them?
You can't answer that question unless you know: How many jobs were you booking before you hired them?
If you don't know the "before" number, you can't measure the "after" improvement.
Follow the money: If a vendor won't ask you about your baseline, they don't want you measuring whether they actually helped.
What to do: Before you hire the vendor, take a screenshot.
For a marketing agency: How many calls per week? Qualified leads? Jobs booked last month? Revenue?
For a software tool: How long does this task currently take? How many errors happen? What does it cost?
For a consumer purchase: What alternatives did you consider? What does the current situation cost you?
After 30 or 60 days, measure again. The difference is the actual result. Not their graph. Your data.
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QUESTION 5: Does the Vendor Have Skin in the Game?
Does the person selling have anything to lose if they fail?
ASK for: No contract. Money-back guarantee. Performance-based pricing. Transparent reporting.
Follow the money: If they won't bet on their own results, why should you?
Most vendors protect themselves with long contracts. Twelve months. Auto-renewal. By the time you realize results aren't coming, you're locked in.
That's not confidence. That's customer capture.
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HOW THIS WORKS ON DIFFERENT DECISIONS
SCENARIO 1: A vendor pitch to a Business (Google Guaranteed network)
Claim: "Guaranteed local visibility and more qualified leads"
Question 1 (Promise vs. Proof): They show rankings improving for "similar businesses" but don't show booked jobs from those rankings. Can't verify.
Question 2 (Measurement): They measure Google ranking position, not booked jobs or revenue. They're measuring what they control, not what you need.
Question 3 (Timeline): They say "visibility builds over time" but won't commit to when you'll see calls. Vague = no accountability.
Question 4 (Baseline): They don't ask what your current call rate is. They don't need to know your reality.
Question 5 (Skin in the game): You sign a contract. They get paid monthly. If it doesn't work, you end the contract and they keep fees already paid. They win whether you do or not.
Your verdict: Follow the money. This vendor is optimized for their metrics, not yours. Pass.
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SCENARIO 2: A consumer purchase
SCENARIO 2A: Home Security System Purchase
A salesperson shows up at your door. "We've had break-ins in your neighborhood," they say. "You need protection. $299 upfront and $30 a month."
First question: Is this true? Or are they using fear to sell you?
Question 1 (Promise vs. Proof): They claim "break-ins down the street." Don't believe them. Check it yourself. Call the police non-emergency line. Ask neighbors. Did they have break-ins? Do they have systems? Did the system stop anything?
Question 2 (Measurement): They measure "systems sold." You need to measure: Did a break-in actually happen to someone you know? Did their system stop it or just record it? Did it lower their insurance bill?
Question 3 (Timeline): They say "protection starts now." But when will you know if you needed it? Only if a break-in happens. If nothing happens, you'll never know if the system stopped it or if there was no risk anyway.
Question 4 (Baseline): Get real numbers. How many break-ins happened in your neighborhood last year? Call the police. Talk to neighbors who've lived here five years. Get facts, not stories.
Question 5 (Skin in the game): They get paid $299 + $30 every month. Whether a break-in happens or not, they keep your money. They're betting on your fear, not your safety.
Your verdict: Don't buy based on fear. Get the police data first. Talk to neighbors. Then decide if the risk is real. The salesperson's "break-in down the street" might be made up to scare you.
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SCENARIO 3: A personal decision (Should I hire a contractor for a $1,600 ten-day project?)
The contractor comes with testimonials and says "this will take ten days, cost $1,600, and I'll be done by July 15."
Question 1 (Promise vs. Proof): The testimonials are positive but not specific. No timeline. No project details. No way to verify.
Question 2 (Measurement): How will you know the work is actually done? What's the standard? What gets inspected? Vague = disputes.
Question 3 (Timeline): Ten days sounds specific but what if? No buffer. No contingency. "July 15" is a date, but what happens July 16? No penalty clause. No accountability.
Question 4 (Baseline): Do you know what this should cost? What other contractors quoted? Did you get three estimates?
Question 5 (Skin in the game): How much does he want upfront? If he demands 50%+ before starting, he's protecting himself—not confident in delivery. If he wants 10-15% and progress payments tied to milestones, he's betting on completion.
Your verdict: Follow the money. Before you hand over cash, get everything in writing: exact scope, exact timeline with penalty clause if he misses it, exact price with payment schedule tied to milestones, exact standard for "done."
If he won't agree to that level of specificity, he knows something you don't.
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THE PRINCIPLE THAT WORKS EVERYWHERE
In 2026, you're drowning in BS. AI slop, fake stats, vendor hype, manufactured urgency, reviews you can't trust, information you can't verify.
But BS always has the same structure:
Someone benefits if you believe it. Someone profits if you buy it. Someone avoids measurement if it fails.
Follow the money. It reveals incentives every time.
The five questions make BS harder to hide. They make the risk-reward more evidence-based. They force specificity where vendors want vagueness. They require proof where vendors want trust. They expose what's really being measured instead of what vendors want you to think is being measured.
When you ask the five questions, you can see the gaps. You can make a decision based on available information. You can take an approved risk to get an anticipated reward. Not a perfect decision. But a better one.
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ONE MORE THING
Don't fall in love with a product or service. Don't fall in love with the pitch or the vendor or the promise.
And, Don't fall in love with the salesperson. “They seem nice”.
Like the fact you can make better choices. Love the results. Results are either good or bad. You'll know right away.
If the results are working, keep it. If they're not working, drop it as soon as possible.
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You can't trust what you read online in 2026. There are no perfect answers out there. No 100% yes or no.
Even the "objective" studies and surveys have bias. Who paid for them? Who designed them? What did they choose to measure? What did they leave out? Bias is everywhere.
The five questions won't give you certainty. But they give you something better. They shift the decision back to you. Now you make the call. Not based on perfect evidence—because that doesn't exist. But based on what you measure yourself. What's documented. Who has skin in the game. And your own judgment about whether the risk is worth it.
You're going to have to decide. That's the job. And now you know how to make that decision without getting taken advantage of as much.